According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034, Bangladesh and Vietnam are set to lead global cotton trade growth over the next decade, driven by expanding textile industries and export-oriented garment production. Global cotton trade is projected to grow 1.6–2.1% annually, reaching over 12 million tonnes by 2033–2034. Bangladesh is expected to account for 18% of global imports, with mill consumption rising from 1.7 million tonnes in 2023 to 2.4 million tonnes by 2033. Vietnam will see slightly higher growth at 2.7% annually. Asia will remain the hub of cotton processing, while China’s dominance gradually declines. Global production is forecast to grow 1.3% annually, led by India, the U.S., and Brazil. The shift reflects favorable labor costs, foreign investment, and trade deals in Bangladesh and Vietnam, positioning them as emerging leaders in the global cotton and textile markets.
According to a recent global report, Bangladesh and Vietnam are set to lead the growth of the global cotton trade over the next decade, as textile mills increasingly utilize cotton for yarn production destined for export-oriented garments.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecast that world cotton trade will grow steadily at an annual rate of 1.6%, reaching 12.3 million tonnes by 2034.
This growth is primarily driven by rising textile demand in Asian nations, especially Vietnam and Bangladesh, where mill usage is rapidly expanding, the OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025‑2034, released on July 15, stated.
By 2034, Bangladesh is expected to account for 18% of global raw cotton imports, with an annual growth rate of 2.4%. Currently, Bangladesh consumes over 1.7 million tonnes of cotton, importing more than 75% of its needs.
The report highlights that global raw cotton consumption is projected to increase by 1.2% annually, fueled by growing textile demand in middle- and low-income countries.
Asia will continue to be the central hub for raw cotton processing, with Vietnam, Bangladesh, and India experiencing expansion due to their competitive labor and production costs.
Both Bangladesh and Pakistan are expected to each consume 8% of the world's total cotton. While China's dominance in global cotton processing is expected to decline gradually, it will remain the largest processor by 2034, followed by India. China is projected to account for 30%, and India 22%, of global cotton processing by the end of the decade.
Since 2010, China's cotton mill consumption has steadily declined due to rising labor costs and stricter labor and environmental regulations. This downward trend was intensified by the 2014 abolition of the government-supported support price system, which previously provided market intervention.
According to the report, these changes prompted a shift of textile manufacturing to other Asian countries, notably Vietnam and Bangladesh. Since the phasing out of the Multifiber Arrangement in 2005, countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam have experienced rapid growth in their textile sectors, driven by an abundant labor supply, low production costs, and supportive government policies.
The Multifiber Arrangement, established in 1974, imposed quotas on developing countries' exports of clothing and textiles to Europe and the U.S. However, the European Union's duty-free access to least developed countries under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) has significantly boosted Bangladesh's textile industry, enabling it to emerge as a major global exporter of apparel, especially knitted and woven garments.
The expansion of textile industries across Asian economies is expected to continue propelling mill consumption growth over the next decade. Vietnam is projected to lead with an annual growth rate of 2.7%, followed by Bangladesh at 2.1%.
The OECD-FAO report also forecasts that global cotton production will grow by 1.3% annually, mainly through yield improvements, reaching 29.5 million tonnes by 2034. India is anticipated to surpass China as the world's largest cotton producer, thanks to significant yield increases from its currently low levels. Brazil and the United States are expected to follow, maintaining similar production levels.
As major producers and exporters, Brazil and the U.S. are predicted to meet the rising demand from Asian markets and remain the two largest cotton exporters over the coming decade.
Bangladesh and Vietnam are set to emerge as the fastest-growing markets for cotton consumption and trade over the next decade, fueled by their expanding textile capacities and competitive labour and production costs, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024–2033.
Driven by rising demand in the textile and apparel sectors, and limited domestic cotton output, both countries are expected to heavily rely on imports. The report forecasts that global cotton trade will grow by 2.1% annually, reaching 12.4 million tonnes by 2033—largely due to the surge in mill use in Bangladesh and Vietnam.
Specifically, Bangladesh’s cotton mill consumption is projected to climb from 1.71 million tonnes in 2023 to 2.42 million tonnes by 2033. Meanwhile, raw cotton imports by both Bangladesh and Vietnam are expected to rise by over 3% annually, reshaping global trade dynamics.
By 2033, Bangladesh’s share of global cotton imports is projected to hit 18%, second only to China at 23%. The United States will continue to dominate as the world’s leading exporter, accounting for 31% of global cotton exports.
Global cotton production is anticipated to grow steadily, reaching 29 million tonnes by 2033—a 17% increase from 21.14 million tonnes in 2004. This growth will be primarily driven by India (contributing 38% of the global rise), followed by the U.S. (27%) and Brazil (21%).
The report emphasizes that Bangladesh’s increasing reliance on imports, coupled with growing consumption, underscores its rising importance in the international cotton landscape.
Historically, the end of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement in 2005 favoured Chinese textile producers. However, Bangladesh and Vietnam later experienced strong growth, propelled by low costs, abundant labour, and supportive government policies.
Vietnam’s 2007 entry into the World Trade Organization and substantial foreign investment—particularly from Chinese firms—further accelerated its textile sector. Free Trade Agreements such as the EU-Vietnam FTA and the CPTPP also enhanced Vietnam’s access to major global markets.
Similarly, Bangladesh’s rise in the global textile arena has been boosted by foreign investment and trade deals. The ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute has additionally shifted global mill use patterns, with many manufacturers relocating to Bangladesh and Vietnam, further expanding their roles in the global textile and cotton markets.
As the global textile landscape shifts, Bangladesh and Vietnam are poised not just to ride the wave of growth but to redefine it entirely. Their relentless pursuit of competitive advantage, bolstered by strategic trade agreements and a resilient, low-cost labor force, positions them as the new titans of the cotton trade. Meanwhile, traditional powerhouses like China and the United States face a transforming market landscape—one where adaptability will determine their future dominance. In this new era, the baton is passing, and the world watches as these Asian giants set the stage for a revolution in textile production, forever altering the fabric of global trade.
