US President Donald Trump has unveiled a 20-point ceasefire plan, already backed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but analysts argue it offers little for Palestinians and largely favours Israel. The proposal would halt fighting in Gaza, exchange Israeli captives for Palestinian prisoners, and require Hamas to cede control of Gaza to a “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump with international figures such as Tony Blair. While humanitarian aid deliveries would resume and Israeli forces are supposed to withdraw under certain conditions, the plan does not clarify who would enforce Israel’s compliance. The Palestinian Authority (PA) is mentioned but sidelined until it completes unspecified reforms, such as tackling corruption, revising its curriculum, and changing welfare policies. Critics warn this could indefinitely delay the PA’s involvement in governing Gaza. Although the plan refers to a pathway to Palestinian statehood, it makes this conditional on reforms, while Netanyahu continues to reject a Palestinian state and expand Israeli settlements. Analysts stress that Palestinians are once again excluded from the decision-making process, comparing the plan unfavourably to the Oslo Accords. They argue it effectively forces Palestinians to negotiate the end of their own genocide while granting Israel and the US decisive control over their future. Ultimately, the plan offers only a temporary pause in violence without meaningful guarantees for Palestinian rights or self-determination.
US President Donald Trump has unveiled a ceasefire proposal already endorsed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but analysts told Al Jazeera that it may offer little to meet Palestinian expectations.
While many in Gaza would welcome a pause to Israel’s relentless assault — which has killed more than 66,000 people and injured over 168,000 since October 2023 — experts say Trump’s 20-point plan provides Palestinians with little beyond that.
“The plan essentially allows Israel, which has carried out the genocide, and the US, which has bankrolled it, to determine the fate of the very people they have targeted,” said Palestinian lawyer and analyst Diana Buttu, a former legal adviser to the Palestinian negotiating team. “If you examine the agreement, not a single guarantee is given to Palestinians.”
Ceasefire with caveats
According to the proposal, fighting in Gaza would stop and Israeli captives — both alive and deceased — would be returned in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, as well as the remains of others who died in detention.
Afterwards, Hamas would be required to cede control of Gaza to a so-called “Board of Peace,” an international body chaired by Trump and featuring figures such as former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair. Hamas members who surrender their weapons and pledge “peaceful coexistence” would receive amnesty, while those who refuse would be allowed safe passage abroad.
Under Trump’s plan, humanitarian aid deliveries would resume, Israeli forces would eventually withdraw once certain conditions are fulfilled, and a new economic development strategy would be crafted by experts previously involved in creating so-called “miracle cities” in the region. But analysts told Al Jazeera the proposal leaves a critical question unanswered: who would actually guarantee Israel’s withdrawal?
Trump also warned that if his offer were rejected, Israel would have Washington’s full backing to take whatever actions it deemed necessary in Gaza. This comes despite human rights groups and scholars already defining Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as genocide.
Unclear role for the PA
Muhannad Seloom, assistant professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera that many aspects of the proposal remain unresolved. The Palestinian Authority (PA) is mentioned in the plan, but it has no immediate role until it completes an unspecified “reform programme.” While Trump referenced earlier initiatives — including his own 2020 plan and a Saudi-French proposal — it remains unclear which reforms he was demanding.
The PA has long faced pressure to fight corruption, overhaul its governance, revise school curricula, and amend welfare policies for families of Palestinian prisoners. Although its prisoner payment scheme has been adjusted, Washington continues to criticise the policy. According to Seloom, the vague reform requirement could serve as a tool to indefinitely postpone the PA’s return to Gaza’s administration. “It looks like a rushed deal that will be pieced together as they go,” he added.
Aid loopholes
Another major flaw, analysts noted, is the lack of clarity over humanitarian aid. While the plan says deliveries would be channelled through the UN and the International Red Crescent, it makes no mention of the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) — an entity linked to over 1,000 Palestinian deaths as desperate civilians waited in line for food and supplies.
What Trump’s Ceasefire Plan Means for Palestine
Analysts say the proposal offers no guarantees for Palestinians and heavily favours Israel
US President Donald Trump has unveiled a ceasefire proposal already accepted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but analysts told Al Jazeera that it risks falling far short of Palestinian hopes.
For people in Gaza, any pause in Israel’s relentless assault — which has killed more than 66,000 and wounded over 168,000 since October 2023 — would be a relief. Yet experts argue Trump’s 20-point plan offers Palestinians little beyond that.
“Ending the genocide is framed through a colonial lens, where Israel — the perpetrator — and the US — its main backer — get to dictate the future of those suffering under their violence,” said Palestinian lawyer and analyst Diana Buttu, who served as a legal adviser to the Palestinian negotiating team in the early 2000s. “Not a single guarantee is made to Palestinians. All guarantees are made to Israel.”
Ceasefire with Conditions
Under the plan, fighting in Gaza would end, and Israeli captives — both alive and dead — would be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, along with the remains of others who died in detention.
Hamas would then have to relinquish authority in Gaza to a “Board of Peace,” an international transitional body chaired by Trump and including figures such as former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair. Hamas members willing to disarm and pledge “peaceful coexistence” would be granted amnesty, while those refusing would be offered safe passage abroad.
The plan also promises resumed humanitarian aid deliveries, Israeli military withdrawal once certain conditions are met, and a development programme overseen by experts known for building so-called “miracle cities” in the region. But analysts note that it fails to specify who would enforce Israel’s withdrawal.
Trump further warned that if Palestinians reject his proposal, Israel would have Washington’s full backing to pursue any measures it deems necessary in Gaza — even as human rights organisations and scholars have already labelled Israel’s campaign genocide.
The Palestinian Authority’s Ambiguous Role
Muhannad Seloom, assistant professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera that the plan leaves critical issues unresolved. The Palestinian Authority (PA) is mentioned but sidelined until it completes an unspecified reform programme. Trump referred vaguely to earlier initiatives, including his 2020 plan and a Saudi-French proposal, without clarifying what reforms were expected.
The PA has long been pressured to combat corruption, overhaul governance, revise its curriculum, and amend its welfare policies for families of Palestinian prisoners. While it has adjusted prisoner payments, the US continues to criticise the scheme. According to Seloom, without benchmarks, the “reform” condition could be exploited to indefinitely delay the PA’s return to Gaza. “It looks like a rushed deal that will be patched together as they go,” he said.
Another gap concerns aid. Though the plan directs deliveries through the UN and the International Red Crescent, it omits mention of the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), linked to over 1,000 deaths of Palestinians waiting in line for food and supplies.
Statehood in Question
Recent diplomatic moves have seen Canada, Australia, the UK, France, and Portugal recognise the state of Palestine, echoing a UN General Assembly resolution backing a two-state solution. But analysts stress these recognitions mean little on the ground as Israeli settlement expansion fragments Palestinian territory.
“Everyone is recognising the state of Palestine as it is being erased,” said Buttu. “That’s the real problem.”
Trump’s plan briefly gestures at a “credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood,” but again, only conditional on the PA completing its vague reform agenda. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has been clear in his rejection of a Palestinian state. On the eve of the UNGA vote, he announced yet another settlement project slicing through the occupied West Bank, telling supporters: “There will be no Palestinian state.”
For analysts, this shows the plan depends largely on Netanyahu’s goodwill and US guarantees of Israeli compliance — both of which have been historically unreliable. “On paper it looks workable,” said Seloom. “But in practice, too many details are unclear.”
Negotiating the End of Their Own Genocide
Analysts warn that Palestinians have been here before. The Oslo Accords of the 1990s were supposed to lay the groundwork for statehood, but instead Israel tightened its grip on Palestinian land.
“This is worse than Oslo,” Buttu argued. “At least back then, Palestinians had a voice. Now, our voices are removed, and others are speaking on our behalf.”
Trump has discussed the plan with Arab and Islamic leaders, but no Palestinian representatives were invited. Despite that, Washington continues to frame Palestinians as responsible for stopping Israel’s war on Gaza. If Hamas rejects the deal — which offers few protections for Palestinian civilians — the assault will continue, and may even escalate.
“The tragedy is that this genocide has gone on for two years, and now Palestinians are being forced to negotiate the terms of ending their own genocide,” Buttu told Al Jazeera.